Dozens of nuclear projects are in various stages of development across the United States. This new wave of reactors is being driven by growing demand for clean, reliable energy to meet the needs of data centers and AI, industry, national security, and decarbonization. Companies are making real progress toward demonstrating first-of-a-kind projects. Despite this progress, not every project will succeed, but that’s okay. What matters is the success of the overall nuclear energy portfolio, not every project in that portfolio.
Although individual nuclear projects or companies may fail, the approach of “taking a lot of shots on goal” is necessary to identify the best path forward and ensure the long-term success of new nuclear energy. Advanced nuclear technologies vary widely in design, supply chain needs, siting requirements, fuel, and more. This diversity is key, because it results in a portfolio of projects that can be down-selected over time to enable the greatest chance of ultimate success. This is also why project failure is on the pathway to portfolio success.
NIA has been advocating for this portfolio approach for years. In NIA’s 2023 report on modernizing the Department of Energy (DOE), we recommended that: “DOE should utilize business principles to learn from failure and determine where additional investment should be allocated,” and discussed why successful innovation takes many attempts, a diversity of designs, and the presumption that failure has benefits – a lesson that Thomas Edison fully embraced.
In fact, project failure is an indication of a well-designed program where public-private partnerships are involved. If the federal government only supports nuclear energy projects that succeed, that is a sign that the program is not taking sufficient risks, or that the projects were not in need of government support in the first place. This means utilizing due diligence and federal financing to support breakthrough technologies, take on calculated risks, and ultimately de-risk innovations that wouldn’t advance without public-private partnership.
As with a financial investment portfolio, volatility should be expected. However, the focus should be on a longer-time horizon, and a diverse portfolio that provides the best chance of long-term success. Just as financial markets rise and fall, some nuclear projects or companies will exceed expectations while others may fall short. This is especially true today, given the ambitious goals being set by this Administration, the dozens of companies that are pursuing novel reactor designs, and the push to accelerate timelines for deployment. This is why success should be judged at the portfolio level, not the project level.
Unfortunately, when the inevitable occurs and a project or company fails or falls behind schedule, critics may cast doubt on the entire nuclear industry, but that reflects a misunderstanding of how innovation works. Innovation requires iteration, a willingness to learn from setbacks, and above all, a commitment to moving forward. This is what makes the federal government’s role in encouraging innovation even more important.
To be clear, failure is no excuse for cutting corners on the path to a successful portfolio. It’s essential that the federal government exercises rigorous due diligence when entering into partnerships with nuclear energy companies. Once those partnerships are established, the government has a responsibility to continually assess each company’s progress.
Efforts to rapidly deploy new reactors must also be matched by commitments to build them safely and responsibly. Above all, it is imperative to build both rapidly and responsibly. This is why the technical feasibility, safety case, and financial viability of each project must be evaluated to meaningfully measure progress.
To achieve success, a trusted and competent safety regulator is required. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) must uphold its core mission of protecting public health and safety, while continuing to modernize its regulations to enable the rapid deployment of new nuclear reactors. It is not only possible but essential to maintain the NRC's independence, credibility, and technical capacity while also making it more efficient and effective. The same is also true of DOE, which is responsible for authorizing the construction and testing of nuclear reactors under DOE’s jurisdiction.
Both NRC and DOE must maintain public trust in their mission to oversee the safe construction and operation of new nuclear energy technologies. They need sufficient staff and resources to effectively and efficiently carry out their responsibilities and to maintain the recent momentum that has propelled nuclear energy commercialization forward.
A measured, thoughtful, and responsible approach is essential to ensure durable progress. But this is no easy task. It will require a portfolio mindset that can evaluate individual projects while keeping sight of the broader goal of successful new nuclear commercialization. And it will require moving rapidly, and responsibly, to meet the moment and give the entire nuclear energy portfolio the best chance to succeed.